Crystal Balls Proved Reliable for Predicting CRE Market Performance in 2013

Crystal Balls Proved Reliable for Predicting CRE Market Performance in 2013 - CoStar Group

Through the third quarter of this year, investment sales were up 27%,  according to CoStar COMPs data. Industrial investments were up 56% and  office up 27%; however, multifamily investments tapered off this year  and were actually down about 6%.

Predictions - Apartment purchases will pick up early in the year using FNMA loans and lines of credit - FHA 223 will be used primarily for refinances of strong borrowers with good liquidity and non-profit borrowers with good balance sheets due to its long processing time



Then FED taper will bring 50 bases points higher interest rates for ten year loans resulting in sales and refinances slowing in the second half of the year

Lending remains behind pre-recession levels

Total loan balances for all banks in the third quarter were $154.2 billion less than in 2008.

During that time frame, loans at banks with assets of less than $1 billion grew by $28.4 billion, or .7 percent annually, while loan balances for banks with more than $1 billion in assets decreased by $182.8 billion, or .4 percent.

At the same time, total assets for all banks grew by nearly $1.3 trillion, or 1.9 percent.

Much of that asset growth came from securities, or investments, that could pose a problem for banks in the future.
 More and more of those purchased securities are long-term [five years or longer], and they could be problematic as interest rates rise in the future.